Home Prices Rose 2.1% Over the Past Year in August but Lost Ground to Inflation for a 15th Straight Month: What the Case-Shiller Report Means for Buyers and Sellers

Prices picked up a little speed nationally, but where you live now matters more than ever: the gap between the hottest and coldest big-city markets is nearly 9 percentage points.

How much did home prices rise in August?

U.S. home prices were 2.1% higher in August than a year earlier, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday, Oct. 27. That was a bit faster than July's 1.9% gain, but it still trailed 3.4% inflation, so home values fell in real terms for the 15th straight month.

The Case-Shiller indexes track repeat sales of the same homes over time, which makes them a widely watched measure of what's happening to home values. Two other versions also sped up. The 20-City Composite, which covers 20 large metro areas, rose 2.7% over the year, up from 2.5% in July. The 10-City Composite rose 3.6%, up from 3.4%, according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices release.

Keep in mind that the report runs on a delay. The August figure is a three-month average of sales that closed in June, July and August, so it reflects deals that were often agreed to in spring and early summer, as Calculated Risk noted. We covered the July numbers in last month's Case-Shiller story.

Did prices fall from July to August?

It depends on how you measure. Before seasonal adjustment, the national index dipped about 0.2% from July to August, which is common as the busy summer season fades. After adjusting for those normal seasonal swings, prices rose about 0.3% for the month. The 20-City Composite showed the same pattern, down 0.4% before adjustment and up 0.3% after.

"The divergence suggests that the typical post-summer slowdown is obscuring some underlying strength in home prices," the release said. A separate government measure pointed the same way: the Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index rose 2.4% over the year in August, Calculated Risk reported.

Which cities are rising and which are falling?

Chicago led the country with a 6.7% annual gain, followed by New York at 6.2%, Cleveland at 4.3% and Miami at 4.2%. At the other end, five of the tracked metro areas were below where they were a year earlier: Seattle (down 2.0%), Las Vegas (down 1.3%), Dallas (down 0.8%), Denver (down 0.8%) and Tampa (down 0.4%). Detroit had no August figure because of recording delays in Wayne County, according to S&P.

That spread is wide. A homeowner in Chicago and one in Seattle are living through very different housing markets, even though the national number looks calm. Some large metros, such as Phoenix (up 0.4%) and Atlanta (up 0.5%), were roughly flat.

Why do prices that rise still "lose" to inflation?

When home prices rise more slowly than overall prices, a home buys less in real terms even if its dollar value goes up. "U.S. home prices declined in real terms for the 15th consecutive month in August 2026," said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. She added: "Affordability, however, remains challenging."

Here's a simple example. A home worth $400,000 in August 2025 would be worth about $408,400 a year later at the national 2.1% pace, a gain of $8,400. But with prices for everything else up 3.4%, keeping up with inflation would have taken about $413,600. The owner has more dollars on paper but slightly less buying power.

What this means for your wallet

If you're buying: Slower national price growth can give you a little more room to negotiate, especially in the five metros where prices are down from a year ago. In Seattle, for example, a home that sold for $700,000 a year ago would be about $686,300 at the index's 1.96% annual drop. That doesn't make homes cheap, because mortgage rates and insurance costs still weigh on monthly payments. Our guide to figuring out how much house you can afford walks through the full monthly cost, not just the price.

If you're selling: Your local market matters more than the national headline. In Chicago, a $300,000 home a year ago would be about $320,100 at the 6.7% pace. In flat or falling markets, pricing a home based on last year's neighbor's sale could leave it sitting. Recent comparable sales from the past few months are usually a better guide than year-old numbers.

If you're staying put: Your home's value is only one part of your finances. A slower-growing home value may affect how much equity you can borrow against later, so it can help to check your local trend before planning a renovation or a home equity loan around a big jump in value.