You've probably seen the headlines: a "Great Wealth Transfer" of $100 trillion or more is about to pass from baby boomers to their children and grandchildren. New research suggests the reality may be smaller, slower and more complicated.
The wealth is real
Boomers still hold a huge share of the nation's wealth. They owned 51.4% of U.S. household wealth in the first quarter of 2025, down only a little from 54.7% in 2019, according to Federal Reserve data cited by InvestmentNews. Millennials' share rose to 10.3% from 4.1% over the same period.
Estimates of the coming transfer are enormous. Bank of America cites a figure of $124 trillion, Fortune reported on Oct. 6. Vanguard projects about $100 trillion will move from older to younger generations by 2048.
Why heirs may get less
Research from Dunham & Associates, published in early October, warns the transfer could become a "Great Wealth Mirage." The reason is longevity. Retirement savings designed to last 20 to 25 years may now need to stretch 40 to 50 years. In the firm's model, a portfolio earning 4% after fees ran out of money by year 34 of retirement.
Visa's economists reached a similar conclusion. They estimate boomers hold at least $93 trillion in assets, but after debts, taxes, fees and retirement spending, only about $36 trillion will reach Gen X and millennial heirs over the next 20 years.
Worries about the next generation
Wealthy families are also uneasy about what heirs will do with what they receive. A new Bank of America survey of more than 1,430 Americans with at least $3 million to invest found only 47% believe the next generation is prepared to continue the family's charitable giving, down from 55% in 2024.
Vanguard's research, published Oct. 13, offers a hopeful note: heirs who talked about their inheritance in advance reported better financial and emotional outcomes.
Why the money shrinks between generations
The $100-trillion-plus figures describe gross assets, not what families will actually bank after settling an estate. Probate and legal costs, outstanding debts, taxes in states that still levy their own estate or inheritance tax, and the simple cost of years of care can all shrink an inheritance well below its paper value. Advisors have flagged a similar gap in past wealth transfers between earlier generations, though today's unusually long retirements and high health care costs have made the gap more pronounced.
Life expectancy itself has shifted the math. A 65-year-old American today can expect, on average, to live into their mid-80s, and many will live well beyond that. Retirement plans built decades ago often assumed a shorter payout period, which is part of why advisors increasingly recommend planning finances for a retirement that could last 30 years or more rather than the traditional 20.
What it means for you
- Plan your own retirement for a long life first; an inheritance is what's left over.
- Price out long-term care and consider insurance or a dedicated savings plan.
- Talk with your children about your plans, values and wishes before it's needed.
- Consider giving while you're alive, through annual gifts or a donor-advised fund, so you can see the impact.
- Keep your will, trusts and beneficiary designations up to date.
The bottom line
The Great Wealth Transfer is real, but for many families it will be smaller and later than the headlines suggest. The families that handle it best tend to plan for long lives, talk openly and treat their wealth as something to steward, not just pass on.
Sources: InvestmentNews (Oct. 5, 2026), Fortune (Oct. 6, 2026), Vanguard (Oct. 13, 2026), Visa Business and Economic Insights (July 2026)
Content on The Evergreen Edit is for educational and informational purposes only and is not individualized financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Learn more.
This article is for educational purposes only and isn't personalized financial, tax or legal advice. Consider talking with a qualified professional about your situation.
Kiara Miller — Founder & Editor
Kiara Miller is the founder and editor of The Evergreen Edit. He has been doing independent finance research for two decades and reviews every article before it's published.
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