Home Prices Rose 1.9% Over the Past Year but Still Trailed Inflation, Case-Shiller Report Shows

Home values are inching up in most places, but slower than everyday prices, which matters for buyers, sellers and anyone counting on home equity.

Two closely watched reports on home prices came out on Tuesday, September 29, and they told a similar story: prices are still rising, but only a little, and not as fast as the cost of living.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.9% in the 12 months through July, up from a 1.6% gain in June. A separate index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the government agency that oversees mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, showed home prices up 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026.

What the reports found

The Case-Shiller indexes track the sale prices of the same homes over time, which helps show real price changes rather than shifts in what kinds of homes are selling. Here are the main numbers for July:

• National index: up 1.9% from a year earlier
• 20-City Composite: up 2.5%, compared with 2.2% in June
• 10-City Composite: up 3.4%, compared with 3.0% in June

Some cities are seeing much stronger gains than others. Chicago led the country with prices up 6.9% from a year earlier, followed by New York at 5.8% and Cleveland at 4.2%. At the other end, prices fell the most in Seattle (down 1.6%), Las Vegas (down 1.3%) and Denver (down 1.1%).

The FHFA report showed a similar split. Over the past 12 months, the Middle Atlantic region had the biggest gain at 6.3%, while the Mountain region had the smallest at 0.6%.

Rising, but losing ground to inflation

Here is the catch. Inflation, which is the general rise in prices over time, has been running faster than home price growth. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, July marked the 14th month in a row that home prices fell in "real terms," meaning after adjusting for inflation.

Put simply, a home may be worth a bit more in dollars than a year ago, but those dollars buy less than they used to.

What this means for your wallet

How this news affects you depends on where you are in life:

• If you are hoping to buy: Slower price growth can give buyers a little more breathing room, especially in cities where prices are falling. But the monthly cost of owning a home also depends heavily on mortgage rates, property taxes and insurance, not just the price. It may help to look at the full monthly payment, not only the sticker price.
• If you own a home: Your home equity, which is the part of your home's value you own outright after subtracting what you owe on your mortgage, may still be growing slowly. But it may not be keeping up with inflation. That is a good reminder not to count on home value alone for long-term goals like retirement or college savings.
• If you are planning to sell: Local conditions matter a lot. A seller in Chicago and a seller in Seattle are in very different markets right now. Recent sales of similar homes nearby are usually the best guide.
• If you rent: Home price trends can affect rents over time. Tracking your housing costs as a share of your income can help you spot when it may be time to adjust your budget.

For families, housing is usually the biggest line in the budget. Knowing what you spend on it each month, and what you could afford if things change, may help you make calmer decisions.