Tomorrow's Midterm Election: What It Could Mean for Markets

Americans vote on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the next two years. Wall Street has spent the past week preparing for the results, and several big banks published their game plans on Monday, Nov. 2.

Here is what the major forecasts say, what different outcomes could mean for stocks and bonds, and how ordinary savers might think about the noise.

What could tomorrow's election mean for the stock market?

Most big-bank forecasts expect a modest stock market reaction, not a crash or a boom. JPMorgan's scenarios, reported by CNBC, range from a 0.25% S&P 500 dip to a 1.25% gain depending on which party wins each chamber. UBS said investors should not treat the midterms as a "binary directional event" for stocks, bonds or the dollar.

A midterm election happens halfway through a president's four-year term. All 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate are on the ballot. The president stays in office, but the party that controls Congress shapes spending, taxes, oversight and which bills reach the president's desk.

Going into Election Day, Democrats are expected to take control of the House, while control of the Senate remains uncertain, CNBC reported on Monday.

What are the big banks forecasting?

JPMorgan assigned odds to four outcomes and estimated how the S&P 500 might react to each, according to CNBC:

• Democrats win both chambers ("blue wave"): 66% likelihood; the S&P 500 could fall 0.25% or rise 0.50%.
• Democratic House, Republican Senate: 26% likelihood; the S&P 500 could gain 0.5% to 1%.
• Republicans keep both chambers ("red wave"): 7% likelihood; the S&P 500 could climb 1% to 1.25%.
• Republican House, Democratic Senate: 1% likelihood; the S&P 500 could rise 0.25% to 0.75%.