Winter Heating Bills: Natural Gas Users May Pay Less, but Heating Oil Costs Could Jump 21%, EIA Says

How much you spend to stay warm this winter could depend mostly on what heats your home.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the government's energy statistics agency, released its winter heating forecast on Tuesday, Oct. 6, as part of its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. Reuters described the picture as "mixed" for households: some families could see relief, while others face a much bigger bill.

The forecast by fuel

Here's what the EIA expects households to spend this winter compared with last winter, according to figures reported by Axios and Reuters:

• Natural gas: about 9% less
• Propane: about 3% less
• Electricity: about 4% more
• Heating oil: about 21% more

Heating oil prices are expected to be up more than 30% from last winter, according to the EIA. Total spending is expected to rise less than prices because the EIA expects milder weather in the Northeast, where most heating oil users live. That means households may burn a bit less fuel.

Natural gas and propane together heat about half of U.S. homes, the EIA said. According to Axios, about 45% of households heat mainly with natural gas, 43% with electricity and just 3% with heating oil.

Why heating oil is so expensive this year

Heating oil and diesel are closely related fuels, so their prices tend to move together. Investing.com reported that diesel costs have jumped because of the conflict involving Iran and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, which have squeezed global supplies.

Reuters reported that East Coast stockpiles of distillate fuels, the category that includes diesel and heating oil, were 32% below their five-year average in September.

On the other side, the EIA said natural gas inventories are entering winter about 2% above their five-year average. "Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand," the agency said, according to Reuters.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), a group representing state energy aid programs, has a more worried forecast. It projects heating oil costs could rise about 50%, or roughly $878, bringing the typical winter total to over $2,600, Axios reported. Different groups use different assumptions, so the actual cost will depend on prices and weather.

What this means for your wallet

• Check your fuel type: If your home uses natural gas, you may get a little relief. If you heat with oil, consider budgeting now for a noticeably larger bill.
• Ask about budget billing: Many utilities and fuel dealers offer plans that spread winter costs evenly across the year. Payments stay predictable, though you still pay for what you use.
• Compare oil and propane dealers: Prices can vary between suppliers. Some offer pre-buy or fixed-price plans before winter. Read the terms carefully, since you may not benefit if prices fall.
• Look for help early: The federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) helps eligible households with heating bills. Your state or local energy office can explain how to apply, and funds may be limited.
• Small fixes add up: Sealing drafts, changing furnace filters and lowering the thermostat at night or when you're away may trim your bill. Our new guide to lowering your home energy bills walks through more ideas.

What else the outlook said

The EIA also forecast that U.S. gasoline prices will average $3.91 a gallon in 2026 and $3.56 in 2027. It expects wholesale electricity prices to average $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, 11% higher than in 2025.

This article is for education only and is not financial advice. Everyone's situation is different.