Gold Jumps 3.4% Back Above $4,000 as Silver Surges 5% After the Midterms

A weaker dollar, lower bond yields and fiscal worries lifted precious metals on Wednesday, but the same Fed that sent gold to its October low is still in the way.

Why did gold jump back above $4,000 on Nov. 4?

Gold rose because the dollar and Treasury yields fell after Democrats won Congress, and some investors grew more worried about government finances. December gold futures settled up 3.37% at $4,073 an ounce on Wednesday, Nov. 4, the metal's biggest daily gain since mid-August.

The move added $132.60 an ounce, Goldinvest reported, and Bastille Post carried the same settlement figures. December silver gained 5.08% to settle at $52.28. Other precious metals joined in. Goldinvest put spot platinum, the price for immediate delivery, at $1,496 at the close, up 5.9%, and palladium up about 6.5% near $995.

Gold hit a 12-month low of about $3,875 and silver hit $49.07 on Oct. 30, Rio Times reported. We covered that slide below $3,900 at the time, when bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase were the main pressure.

The buying carried into Thursday in Asia. Spot gold was about $4,135 at 03:16 GMT, up another 1.9%, Discovery Alert reported. That is a snapshot, not a settlement.

How did the midterm results reach the gold market?

Three things moved together. The first was the dollar. Gold is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar can make it cheaper for overseas buyers. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell to a five-week low near 101.2, Goldinvest reported.

The second was yields. Gold pays no interest, so when bond yields fall, the income investors give up by holding it shrinks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5 basis points to about 4.90%, Goldinvest and Rio Times reported. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

The third was worry about deficits. "The elections appear to have boosted gold prices as investors become more worried about the fiscal outlook," Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a Reuters report. Reuters also linked the dollar's drop to the prospect of tighter AI regulation and its possible drag on growth.

Oil may have helped too. Brent crude closed at $94.62 after a plunge of about 8%. Cheaper oil can ease inflation fears, which matters for the Fed's next move. Stocks rose the same day, with the Dow up about 1,570 points, so gold and shares climbed together.

Is the rebound on solid ground?

Not everyone thinks so. The Fed held its target rate at 3.75% to 4% last week with two policymakers favoring a hike, Kitco reported. CME FedWatch still showed about an 82% chance of a hike at the December meeting on Wednesday, according to Reuters. Higher rates tend to weigh on gold.

Hussain made that point directly. "The fact that the Fed is likely to remain hawkish due to the inflationary backdrop means that the scope for further gains in gold prices is limited," he said. He added that gold has moved more closely with stocks lately, so "continued weakness in tech stocks could also weigh on gold prices."

The bigger picture is also sobering. Gold's record, set Jan. 28, was above $5,300, Goldinvest reported, so Wednesday's settlement was still roughly 23% below it. The Oct. 30 low was more than 26% below that record. Gold is still down about 6% to 7% in 2026, and silver is down about 28%. Silver's highest close was $114.59, also on Jan. 28, Rio Times reported, which leaves it more than 50% lower even after this week's bounce.

What this means for your wallet

Most everyday investors reach gold through a fund rather than a bar. An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, trades like a stock and tracks a price or an index. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose 3.68% to $372.49 on Wednesday, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose 5.17% to $47.16, Rio Times reported.

Here is what that looks like in dollars. Say someone holds $10,000, with $500 of it in a gold fund. A 3.68% gain adds about $18, which lifts the whole portfolio by less than 0.2%. Now run the same $500 through the drop from the January record to the October low. A fall of about 27% leaves roughly $365. This simple example ignores fund fees and taxes, and it shows why position size can matter more than one good day.

Silver shows the trade-off clearly. It rose more than gold on Wednesday, but it has also fallen much further this year. Bigger gains and bigger losses often go together. Anyone in a 401(k) or broad index fund likely owns little or no gold directly, so a move like this may barely show up in those accounts.

History offers a mild tailwind, with caveats. Kitco Research said gold rose an average of 14% in the 12 months after the last 13 midterm elections. That is an average from a small sample, and it says nothing about what happens this time. Our guide to how midterms affect stocks covers the same caution for the stock market.

What should gold investors watch next?

The next test is the October jobs report on Friday, Nov. 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. A Reuters survey expected 65,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2%, Discovery Alert reported. A strong number could firm up December hike bets, which would likely pressure gold. A weak one could do the opposite.

After that, the Fed's Dec. 8-9 meeting is the main event, along with whether the dollar stays near its five-week low.